Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 28/1958Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 28/1824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
28/1706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 956 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 070 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 013/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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