Viewing archive of Monday, 5 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 748 km/s at 04/2346Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 05/1847Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 05/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 56842 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 094 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 020/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 011/012-010/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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