Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 August 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
09/0042Z from Region 2574 (N05E49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Aug,
11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 673 km/s at 09/0940Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/0851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 092 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/012-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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