Viewing archive of Friday, 21 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 21 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 21 Oct 2016 until 23 Oct 2016
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
21 Oct 2016076009
22 Oct 2016077010
23 Oct 2016078015

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. there were no significant flares and all Active Regions (AR) have shown low levels of activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares. The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 370 and 410 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 4 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 1 nT, ranging between -2 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours. A small coronal hole located at central latitudes has rotated into the Western hemisphere and the resultant High Speed Stream (HSS) may enhance solar wind speeds in the coming days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 028, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux075
AK Chambon La Forêt005
AK Wingst003
Estimated Ap002
Estimated international sunspot number017 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:19 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Kuopio
Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (524.2 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.63nT), the direction is North (3.26nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-81nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.75

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