Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 October 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 26/2121Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1835Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 47726 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 079
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 078/078/080
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  031/044
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  023/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  017/024-015/018-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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