Viewing archive of Friday, 30 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 849 km/s at 29/2144Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 30/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 30/1608Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 74718 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 081 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 022/038 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 016/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 024/030-016/021-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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