Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 January 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 334 km/s at 16/2222Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
17/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 079 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 017/025-015/020-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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