Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 370 km/s at 25/1520Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 735 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 085
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  006/005-010/012-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%25%40%

All times in UTC

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