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Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 February 2017

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/2053Z from Region 2638 (N18E20). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 650 km/s at 23/2048Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/1931Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 642 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Feb 083
  Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 083/083/083
  90 Day Mean        23 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Feb  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%40%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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