Viewing archive of Monday, 27 February 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 26/2106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 730 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Feb 082
  Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 081/080/081
  90 Day Mean        27 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  010/012-017/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm10%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%60%60%

All times in UTC

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The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (623.93 km/sec.)

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