Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 March 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0456Z from Region 2645 (S09E44). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 781 km/s at 28/0711Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 27/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 28/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 14903 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (29 Mar), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 084 Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 084/084/083 90 Day Mean 28 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 034/052 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 026/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 022/030-020/024-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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