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Viewing archive of Friday, 7 April 2017

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 07/1949Z from Region 2645 (S09W91). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (09 Apr) and expected to be very low on day three (10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 06/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
Class M10%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Apr 074
  Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        07 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 18:55 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Norilsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.79nT), the direction is North (18.94nT).

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