Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 May 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 16/2146Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 17/0855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 May), active to
major storm levels on day two (19 May) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (20 May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 071 Predicted 18 May-20 May 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 17 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 015/020-031/045-024/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Saturday, 5 October 2024
Incoming CME, G3 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR 3878 144AR 3879 8Possible CME 31.10.2024 21:20 UTC Peak X2.03 from AR 3878 flare 5CME 31/10/2024 Happy ? 3AR 3876 32
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/31 | M4.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| Last 30 days | 157.2 +7.5 |