Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jul,
08 Jul, 09 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 06/0837Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
06/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0403Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (08 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 076 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 076/078/078 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 006/005-007/008-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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