Viewing archive of Monday, 10 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/0031Z from Region 2665 (S06E11). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul,
13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 10/0732Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 10/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Jul, 12 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 095 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 026/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 011/012-011/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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