Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0747Z. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 01/1716Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5842 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 074 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 074/076/078 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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