Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 November 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 307 km/s at 01/1601Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
01/1731Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2866 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 073 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 073/074/073 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 011/012-008/008-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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