Viewing archive of Monday, 23 April 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 22/2109Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21958 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 074 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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