Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 August 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 25/1304Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/2028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 25/2028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1929 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 072
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%20%

All times in UTC

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