Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 17 September 2018

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 17 2235 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 17/0810Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 17/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/1542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34944 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep).

III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       17 Sep 068
  Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        17 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/ NA
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Sep  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  009/010-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	15%	15%
Minor storm	10%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	30%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	40%	20%	20%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik
Tromsø

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (592.1 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (24.18 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (19.62nT), the direction is North (14.5nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-72nT)

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