Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 October 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 314 km/s at 20/0659Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 070 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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