Viewing archive of Friday, 22 March 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
22/0514Z from Region 2736 (N08W62). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 342 km/s at 22/0129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 820 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (23 Mar), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (25
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 082 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 082/082/077 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 015/024-020/025-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 70% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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