Viewing archive of Friday, 2 August 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 02/0742Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (04 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 067 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 006/005-011/012-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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