Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 September 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 08/1541Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1753Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Sep 068
  Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  005/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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