Viewing archive of Friday, 27 December 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 27/0554Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0056Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec 072
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  006/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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