Viewing archive of Friday, 25 September 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 25/0916Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6990 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 Sep, 27 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 073
  Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 073/073/073
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  012/012-011/012-011/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%50%60%

All times in UTC

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