Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 309 km/s at 15/2032Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/1836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
15/2049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 074 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 074/074/072 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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