Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1912Z from Region 2782 (S31E64). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 354 km/s at 11/1939Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
11/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 088 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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