Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0227Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,
14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 435 km/s at 12/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
11/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
12/1909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 535 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 085 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NuukTórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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