Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 21/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 251 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 074 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 015/018-015/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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