Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct,
31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 29/0409Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 29/1239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/1653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 15796 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 085 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 088/088/082 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 008/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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