Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 29/1343Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/2002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 777 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 084 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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