Viewing archive of Friday, 12 March 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 11/2203Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 077
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  015/020-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm55%30%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently high (765.4 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-54nT)

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