Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 13/0721Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 13/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
13/0216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 071 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/012-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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