Viewing archive of Friday, 19 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 19/0023Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 19/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
19/0915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21
Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 074 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 074/074/072 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 018/024-016/022-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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