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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 20/1617Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 20/0412Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 20/0510Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 500 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 080
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  021/031
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  016/022-015/020-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm35%30%25%

All times in UTC

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