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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 16/1213Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/1558Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 16/1806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Apr 077
  Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        16 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Apr  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  015/020-015/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm65%50%50%

All times in UTC

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