Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 May 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 12/2302Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 12/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 May, 16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 075
  Predicted   14 May-16 May 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        13 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  025/037
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  008/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

All times in UTC

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