Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May,
15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 12/2302Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 12/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 May, 16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 075 Predicted 14 May-16 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 13 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 025/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 008/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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