Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 21/1958Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 21/1448Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 21/1711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2033 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 077 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 020/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 015/020-016/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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