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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 22/0002Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9239 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 076
  Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  018/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  016/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  014/022-020/025-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%45%15%
Minor storm25%30%01%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm55%70%20%

All times in UTC

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