Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 23/0122Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/0652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (25 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (26
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 078 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 020/025-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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