Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 February 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 24/0822Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22370 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 081
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  017/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  012/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%10%10%

All times in UTC

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