Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 22/2140Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10083 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 079 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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