Viewing archive of Monday, 19 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Apr,
21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 689 km/s at 19/1639Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 19/0013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 19/0255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Apr) and quiet levels on
days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 086 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 009/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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