Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 27/1156Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0609Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jan 076
  Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 076/076/074
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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