Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (01 Jan, 02
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 30/2114Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (03 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 081 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 081/080/079 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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