Viewing archive of Friday, 4 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest flare was a C1 at 03/2359Z from Region 2790. There are
currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (05 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 03/2330Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
04/1157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/1644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 096 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 094/092/088 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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