Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 541 km/s at 07/0416Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
07/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0651Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 967 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 091 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 092/092/090 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna
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