Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 03/0300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/1346Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 03/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1127 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 103 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 100/095/090 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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