Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 June 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 12/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Jun, 15 Jun) and quiet levels on day two (14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 078
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 078/077/077
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  008/008-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%25%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm25%10%35%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK

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